Syria is undoubtedly at a crossroads. For months, images of the country’s people celebrating the end of the civil war that tore their lives apart for more than a decade have dominated the front pages of news outlets. In December last year, Syrians watched rebel factions capture Aleppo and Damascus in an astonishing operation that resulted in the ousting of Syrian president Bashar al-Assad. The triumph was commemorated all over the country, marking the end of the Assad dynasty and its 50-year reign in Syria.
Bashar al-Assad was particularly notorious for facilitating numerous violations against the Syrian people. During his 14 years in office, the Syrian Network For Human Rights reports that at least 202,000 civilians were killed, including a staggering 23,058 children and 12,010 women. Evidence also indicates that the regime organised massacres, sexual violence, kidnappings, torture, forced displacement and used different forms of destructive weapons.
Establishing a democracy and economic recovery
Armenak Tokmajyan, a scholar at the Carnegie Middle East Center, specialising in Syria, conflict resolution and refugees, spoke to Levantis.me about the general consensus among Syrians experiencing a “free Syria”.
Tokmajyan described the general atmosphere as “one of cautious hope”.
“People are hopeful that this will lead to the restoration of basic services and an economic recovery,” the scholar added, “especially following the meeting between President Trump and Interim President Sharaa in Saudi Arabia, during which Trump promised to lift sanctions.”
Earlier this month US President Donald Trump met with Syria’s interim President Ahmed al-Sharaa in an effort to forge a new relationship with the country. Despite al-Sharaa being on the US radar for his former affiliation to Al Qaeda in Syria, White House spokesperson Anna Kelly released a statement that dubbed the pair as “partners”.
The US president vowed to lift all sanctions on Syria to give economic stability and growth within the region a chance. Following the US, the EU lifted economic sanctions on Syria.
“The new authorities are inexperienced and face both internal instability and external threats.”
For those who have remained in Syria, al-Sharaa’s government should prioritise re-building the economy and finding access to basic services. However, establishing a democracy is vital if the authorities want to continue earning the Syrian peoples trust.
“For ordinary Syrians – who have borne the brunt of the war for over a decade – the main priority is restoring basic services and reviving the economy,” Tokmajyan said. “As for democratic reform, the interim leadership has done little so far. Power remains concentrated in Sharaa’s hands and within his close circle and allies, which dominate key positions from security to governance.”
Religious minorities and the Islamic State
Despite being dubbed by media outlets as a “free Syria,” the new government has warned that it could take up to five years to establish any form of a democracy within the country. Since the de-facto government took charge, Syrians have witnessed several massacres that targeted the Alawite community, a religious minority often accused of being Assad loyalists, and the Islamic State committed its deadliest week in 2025.
The Alawite minority have recently been the target of armed evictions and massacres. The former presidents of Syria, Bashar and Hafez al-Assad, were both Alawites. The Alawite minority believe in the divine trinity of Ali, Mohammad, and Salman al-Farisi, while the Sunni and Shi’a sects believe that Allah is the only God and that Mohammad is his prophet.
More than 1,700 Alawites have been killed, according to a March estimate from the Syrian Observatory For Human Rights (SOHA), a British war monitor. Most of attacks have been reported in Tartus and Latakia, a former safe haven for the Assad dynasty and home to a significant Alawite population. The Alawite community have accused the government forces of murdering innocent civilians, claiming that the majority of those killed were regular citizens with no connection to the Assad government.
During the seven days between April 19th and May 6th, 2025, Syria also saw a rise in sectarian violence involving the Druze minority. Data shows that the number of confirmed deaths totalled at 158 during that week, up from 83 the week before and 41 the week before that. The Druze faith does not consider themselves to be Muslims and reject the Five Pillars of Islam – like fasting during the holy month of Ramadan or making a pilgrimage to Mecca.
The Islamic State (IS) has continued its insurgency activities under the new government. On May 15th, the terror group claimed 33 attacks that occurred in the first five months of 2025. This month, for the first time since the Assad’s regimes overthrow, the IS launched an attack on the new Syrian government. The attack, which came one day after government forces clashed with an IS cell in Aleppo, was carried out using a car bomb that targeted a security post in the eastern town of Mayadin outside the interior ministry security HQ. Five people were killed.
In regard to the new government cracking down on the rise of IS assaults, Tokmajyan explained: “The government has yet to take any concrete, practical measures. It remains overstretched and struggles to provide even basic daily security—let alone mount an effective campaign against ISIS.”
Experts at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy have linked the spike in attacks to the US withdrawing troops from Syria. The significant rise in assaults has been evident since April, the same month that the US started to reduce its military presence in the region. While the events may be a coincidence, within one month, the US has already reduced its troops from 2,000 to roughly 700.
The prospect of Syrian refugees returning home
According to The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR), since December 2024, an estimated 1.4 million Syrians have returned home. Approximately 400,000 returned from neighbouring countries and more than one million were internally displaced. Humanitarian organisations have called on the international community to invest in facilitating the return of refugees who have been waiting for more than a decade for this moment.
While the war has ceased, the civil conflict has left Syria littered with more than 300,000 landmines, according to Humanium, an international child sponsorship NGO dedicated to stopping violations of children’s rights throughout the world. Since 2011, landmines have claimed the lives of at least 3,471 Syrian civilians, including 919 children. Unexploded ordnance (UXO) is also threatening Syria’s children, with approximately five million children currently living in contaminated areas.
“A change in leadership alone hasn’t been enough to prompt large-scale refugee return,” Tokmajyan said. “The new authorities are inexperienced and face both internal instability and external threats.”
Tokmajyan added: “In the short term, stability and economic recovery would be key to encouraging return. In the long run, inclusive and trustworthy governance will be essential.”
It is true that many Syrians may feel cautiously hopeful about their new government as they eye the return of basic services and economic progress. However, there is a lot of work that needs to be delivered by the government to solidify any optimism and to restore trust. Nevertheless, the Syrian government seems to be repairing its international relations, with the US dropping sanctions and the EU following suit. But there is domestic instability in Syria. The violence against the Alawite community and the hostilities facing the Druze minority group presents a major issue for the young government. And while many refugees hope to return to their homeland, it seems to require substantial support from the international community to go ahead extensively. But even if it all goes as planned, the remnants of the war need to be dealt with, as landmines and unexploded ordnance pose a risk to Syrian society. The country is undoubtedly facing a major transition, the future will be the judge as to whether progress will be achieved or the country fall deeper into existing problems.
Humanium, Syrian Network For Human Rights, Syrian Observatory For Human Rights, The Washington Institute For Near East Policy
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