For years now, Yemen has endured one of the world’s most gruelling and overlooked humanitarian crises. Only in recent times, since the October 7th 2023 attacks on Israel, the global lens sharpened its view, due to Yemen’s growing importance with regards to geo-political relations in the Middle East and the wider global stage. The country’s fragile state has also come to the surface.
The Houthis, are an armed political and religious group, in control of large parts of Yemen. They have their backs against the wall, fighting fires from multiple directions, balancing on the tightrope of geo-political chaos that is overwhelming the Middle East. This raises the question as to whether the country has only itself to blame for its recent popularity. So what does the future look like for Yemen? Which side of the rope will Yemen land on?
Inside Yemen, political dysfunction intensifies. The resignation of Prime Minister, Ahmad Awad Bin Mubarak this year exposed the hollow core of a government increasingly disconnected from its people and incapable of reform. With peace talks stalled and the humanitarian crisis worsening, Yemen teeters between a fragile ceasefire and full collapse, a nation caught between international crossfire and internal decay.
Despite the country sheltering from US and UK airstrikes on Houthi targets in response to its attacks on red sea shipping lanes, and the now agreed ceasefire, Houthi’s alignment with Iran still stands. Additionally, this does not alter its willingness to provoke Israel as the Houthis fire missiles toward the war embroiled state. But Yemen’s resilience in the face of Western airpower have ignited notions that the country is becoming a battleground for internal power struggles. Notwithstanding the ceasefire, tensions will remain high as long as the Houthis and US President Donald Trump remain bullish, which will keep Yemen’s security delicate.
What changed is the American position, but our position remains firm.
The conflict within the Middle East is slipping into a volatile period. On one hand, where Yemen will land after falling from the tightrope is seemingly becoming irrelevant. Considering the fact that they will find their feet in a state of chaos, as their land could long since be destroyed.
Historical background
The Yemen civil war began in 2014. The conflict started when Houthi rebels, backed by Iran, seized the capital, Sanaa, and ousted President Abd-Rabbu Mansour Hadi. In response, a Saudi-led coalition intervened in 2015, aiming to restore Hadi’s government. This intervention intensified the conflict, leading to widespread displacement and a humanitarian crisis.
The war has resulted in significant casualties, with estimates of over 377,000 deaths, including those from indirect causes like famine and disease. The United Nations has described Yemen as the world’s worst humanitarian crisis, with millions in need of aid.
Since 2022, there have been multiple successes in brokering a ceasefire agreement with Yemen and Iran. One medicated by the UN in 2022, and another in 2023 by Saudi Arabia. But eventually fighting continued during both of these periods.
Subsequently, Yemen has served as a proxy battlefield in regional power struggles. The Houthis’ involvement in attacking Israel and escalating tensions in the Red Sea are recent examples of this dynamic. In October 2023, the Houthis launched missile and drone attacks on Israeli targets, citing solidarity with Palestinians and opposition to Israeli actions in Gaza. These attacks marked a significant expansion of the conflict beyond Yemen’s borders and drew international condemnation.
Global lens
Military tensions in Yemen have surged following renewed drone and missile attacks by Houthi forces on commercial vessels transiting the Red Sea. In response, the United States under former president, Joe Biden, and the United Kingdom under former Prime minister Rishi Sunak, launched coordinated airstrikes on Houthi positions across northern Yemen beginning in early 2024.
These operations continued into the new governments of both countries, under Trump and Keir Starmer. The US confirmed that their forces have carried out over 1,000 strikes. However, despite the change in leadership the reasoning for the assaults on Yemen remained the same. The US and UK justify their intervention as a defence of freedom of navigation and international trade.
A 55% drop in shipping through the Red Sea has already cost billions.
The safeguard of vital maritime routes, particularly the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, was a key chokepoint for global shipping. There is no doubt global trade suffered. Attacks near the Bab al-Mandeb Strait have disrupted up to 15% of global maritime shipping. British Defence Secretary, John Healey, stated there has been “a 55% drop in shipping through the Red Sea has already cost billions, fuelling regional instability.” Energy markets have remained unstable, and major shipping companies have rerouted vessels around Africa, increasing costs and delays. The US and UK have cited Article 51 of the UN Charter, invoking the right to self-defence and the protection of allies and global commerce. Yet, only time will tell whether the countries military actions on Yemen, contained or escalated the conflict.
Nevertheless, the US and the Houthis have reached a ceasefire agreement. Theoretically, peace governs and attacks have now stopped. Yet, both remain prideful. Both sides are eager to keep the narrative within reach and consequently spin the story to favour their own positions.
In recent days, Trump declared the Houthis had “capitulated” and “they just don’t want to fight”, suggesting US military pressure had forced them into retreat. In response, a senior Houthis spokesperson, Mohammed Abdul Salam, suggested “what changed is the American position, but our position remains firm.” Salem’s assertion seems solid. The Houthis have not scaled down their operations and continue to demonstrate operational capacity, particularly in coastal areas under their control.
The challenge of defeating the Houthis should not be underestimated.
Elisabeth Kendall, director of Girton College at the University of Cambridge warned that “the challenge of defeating the Houthis should not be underestimated.” She added that the Houthis are firmly established and “will not be easy to defeat”, calling them “resilient fighters.”
Equally, Salem assured the ceasefire deal did not include an end to attacks on Israel. He added that support for the Palestinian people in Gaza “will not change”. The Houthis remain defiant against Israel, highlighted by Houthis firing a “hypersonic ballistic missile” towards Ben Gurion airport near Tel Aviv.
There have even been reports which would shatter Trump’s bravado. Supposedly, the real reason behind the ceasefire was a move in relation to Iran, the Houthis primary benefactor and puppet master. Currently, the US and Iran are in discussions over Tehran’s nuclear programme, with representatives from either country describing the talks as encouraging.
Hence, CNN reported on May 6th that sources had told them the ceasefire was aimed at building momentum for the talks with Iran, rather than a move of sincere willingness of either the Houthis or the US to stop attacks. Although, it is interesting that Trump seemingly abandoned Israel, his ally, for domestic priorities, showcasing hollow relations with Israel.
It is indicated that sustained peace is dependent on Iran and the US successfully agreeing a deal. Although, Trump already pulled out of nuclear talks with Iran during his first administration in 2018. So expecting the violence to eventually return would not be illogical.
Humanitarian crisis
With the distance that most people are writing from, the true victims can easily be forgotten when analysing their moving experiences in a geo-political context. But one needs to turn their attention to the dire humanitarian consequences in Yemen, to see a poignant perspective.
Airstrikes and naval blockades have disrupted aid delivery, making it increasingly difficult for NGOs to reach vulnerable populations, especially in Houthi-held territories. Fuel shortages have worsened, crippling hospitals, water systems, and food distribution networks. In areas around Hodeidah and Sanaa, civilians report power outages, and reduced access to medicine and clean water. Aid workers face increasing risks, with growing insecurity around key logistics hubs and ports.
The UN and its partners have launched the 2025 Yemen Humanitarian Needs and Response Plan, seeking $2.47 billion to aid 10.5 million of the 19.5 million Yemenis in need, after their estimations indicate 17 million Yemenis are facing food insecurity. Economic collapse, halted oil exports, and only 3% of the population receiving salaries in Houthis-controlled areas have worsened living conditions, while nearly half the population faces food insecurity and 40% of health facilities are non-functional. Despite aid reaching eight million people in 2024, funding remains insufficient.
On February 10th, The National reported that the UN froze aid operations in Houthi-controlled regions. UN agencies including, the World Food Programme, the World Health Organisation, and UNICEF were all halted from travelling into Houthis-run areas of Yemen. In June 2024, the Houthis arrested thirteen UN staff members. The Houthis claimed they has discovered an “American-Israeli spy network,” just days after they arrested UN staff.
Furthermore, many countries have voiced support for Palestine, but that’s where much of the support ends, embodying reverberations in an echo chamber. It is this noise of self-interested sentiments, in which hypocrisy spews out from countries that turn a blind eye to Israeli actions in Gaza.
While the Houthis actions may be questionable, and the end does not always justify the means, the Houthis refuse to be silenced on the issue of Gaza. Abdullah Yahia, a high school graduate from Sanaa said: “The Houthi leadership has not feared the United States or any other Western force. Offering support to Gaza is the real gauge of courage and humanity. This is why I have changed my view on the Houthis.” Like it or not, the Houthis are providing crucial awareness for Palestine, a topic which many have deserted. Which makes the atrocities of the Houthi actions within Yemen, to the Yemeni people, stir complicated feelings. Even the fact that armed militia groups are raising awareness for Palestinian people through their violent means which gets media coverage showcases the scale of the wider problem the world faces.
The Houthis have never done anything positive. Their support for Gaza is the only thing enabling them to polish up their image.
From this perspective the Houthis are an interesting case. Are their actions one of bravery amid the challenges against Western superpowers, or stupidity and ignorance when the Yemeni people starve? Niku Jafarnia, a Yemen and Bahrain researcher at Human Rights Watch believes “the Houthis have shown true hypocrisy, saying they stand with Palestinians fighting Israeli oppression while themselves oppressing Yemeni civil society.” It is hard to argue that the Houthis are not hugely responsible for the suffering of Yemenis. Furthermore, Assem Mohammed, a 36-year-old from Hodeida, said: “The Houthis have never done anything positive. Their support for Gaza is the only thing enabling them to polish up their image.”
So, who can the people of Yemen rely on? Certainly not the political establishment.
Political deadlock
Yemen’s fragile political structure suffered another blow with the dismissal of Prime Minister, Maeen Abdulmalik Saeed, Middle East Monitor reported on February 6th 2024. The Foreign Minister, Ahmad Awad Bin Mubarak, was the replacement as PM, a staunch opponent of the Houthi’s de facto government. However, Mubarak announced his resignation, Reuters reported on May 3rd 2025. He stated clashes with Rashad Al-Alimi, head of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council (PLC) about government cabinet reshuffling was one of the reasons for his departure. Al-Alimi reportedly dismissed Mubarak’s request to dismiss 12 ministers.
Saeed, who held office throughout much of the civil war, struggled to deliver on promises of reconstruction and accountability. While Mubarak’s recent departure as PM laid bare the deep frustrations within Yemen’s transitional government, failed reforms, the absence of effective governance, but especially frustrations rooted in corruption. Ironically, in January, the PLC launched a wide-ranging crackdown on corruption within government institutions. Yet, Al-Alimi’s latest actions seem to have undermined such efforts.
Mubarak’s exit comes amid growing disillusionment among Yemenis who see their leadership as fragmented and increasingly disconnected from public need. Hanaa Abdel Rahman, a teacher from Hodeida, expressed concern. She said: “I expect they will continue to threaten or to retaliate. I fear a conflagration in Yemen which has suffered a decade of civil war.” The resignation casts further doubt on the credibility of the PLC, which replaced the Hadi government in 2022 with international backing. Designed to unify anti-Houthi factions and lead Yemen toward political transition, the PLC now faces internal power struggles and mounting public skepticism. Without a clear replacement or a transparent process for reform, the council risks losing what little legitimacy it holds.
This political instability could not come at a worse time. Peace talks, already unconvincing, now teeter on the edge. The United Nations, along with mediators from Oman and Saudi Arabia, have pushed for incremental de-escalation. Including the opening of ports, prisoner exchanges, and ceasefires. However, these initiatives require a functioning government partner on the Yemeni side, capable of negotiating in good faith and implementing agreements. Without that, the peace process stalls.
The recent shift in power may also embolden extremists within both the Yemeni government and the Houthi movement, reducing the appetite for compromise. Mediators fear that growing internal discord in the south, and persistent distrust in the north, will derail even the modest progress made in recent months.
The Houthis have shown true hypocrisy, saying they stand with Palestinians fighting Israeli oppression while themselves oppressing Yemeni civil society.
In this context, Yemen’s political deadlock is not just a failure of leadership. It’s a looming threat to any hope of peace. Without urgent political renewal and genuine reform, Yemen risks slipping deeper into conflict. Yemen people could pay the highest price for the actions of others.
Where is Yemen heading?
Yemen stands at a precarious crossroad, caught in a storm of global power plays, regional rivalries, and internal dysfunction. The ceasefire, while welcome, masks deeper fractures that no single deal can mend. With its government in turmoil and its people trapped between collapsing institutions and relentless violence, Yemen risks becoming a permanent stage for proxy wars. Foreign actors wage battles on Yemeni soil, but rarely for Yemeni interests.
Meanwhile, the humanitarian crisis worsens, and hope fades. The Houthis continue to defy, not just their enemies, but international norms, acting as both violent insurgents and champions of Palestinian solidarity. Yet, their actions often inflict more pain on their own very people. One begins to question how the Houthis cannot see this because it is so obvious. And because it is so obvious, one begins to question the sincerity of the Houthis crusade for the Palestinian people.
The international community speaks often, acts without enough substance, and listens even less. Peace, if it comes, must not start in backrooms and should not be veiled by geo-political self-interest. It must start with a leadership willing to serve its people, and a world ready to prioritise lives over leverage. Until then, Yemen walks a tightrope stretched across broken promises.
CNN, Times of Israel, BBC, Middle East Eye, The National, Reuters, Asharq Al-Awsat, OCHA, Al-Jazeera, Sky News, AP news, Dawn Mena, The Guardian, Action Against Hunger, France 24, Middle East Monitor, Human Rights Watch
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