The uncertain future of Gaza’s reconstruction
There was a time when Gaza’s reconstruction seemed to be in the pipeline. European countries said that they endorse an Arab-backed proposal for Gaza’s reconstruction, valued at £41 billion, which would prevent the displacement of Palestinians from Gaza, the BBC reported on March 8th.
The proposal was created by Egypt and was backed by Arab leaders. But it had been dismissed by Israel as well as US President Donald Trump, who wanted the Gaza Strip to be developed into a “Riviera” of the Middle East.
However, the foreign ministers of Germany, France, Italy and the UK commended the plan, which aims to see Gaza rebuilt over five years. It seemed like a promising plan that had Western support to solidify its delivery. But with Israel restarting its war on Gaza on March 18th, the sustainability of such a vision seems unlikely, and so the idea alone could be futile.
The cost of reconstruction also presents a tough task. The UN estimated that it will cost over $53 billion to rebuild Gaza due to the conflict, France 24 via AFP reported on February 11th.
But the UN previously estimated that rebuilding homes in Gaza would cost $40 billion, The Guardian reported on May 2nd 2024, which could indicate that this is a worsening crisis.
It also begs the question as to whether such reconstruction would be affordable, even though foreign aid will likely come to the rescue. An assessment from the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and the UN Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia (UNESCWA), released on October 22nd, 2024, predicted that the level of poverty in Palestine will go up to 74.3% during that year. When you put this into perspective, it suggests that whilst the destruction of infrastructure makes rebuilding a difficult task, the deprivation equally suggests that communities may struggle to be in a financial position where they can restart their lives in new homes.
But the assessment indicated that a holistic plan for reconstruction and recovery in Gaza could help the Palestinian economy to be on track to meet its Palestinian development plans by 2034. But reportedly, this would only pan out if recovery pursuits are not limited. However, the future for recovery seems uncertain.
According to Bloomberg on August 15th 2024, Architectural history professor at The Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Mark Jarzombek said: “What we see in Gaza is something that we have never seen before in the history of urbanism.”
“The cost of rebuilding will be prohibitive. Construction sites on this scale have to be empty of people, creating another wave of displacements.”
The problem, however, could also be an ongoing and unpredictable one. Whilst Israel has restarted its military campaign on Gaza, there are remnants of the earlier stages of the conflict which could still pose a threat to Gazan infrastructure. According to the Middle East Eye on April 3rd this year, an ex-UK military deminer, Nicholas Orr, said: “We’re losing two people a day to UXO (unexploded ordnance) at the moment.” Orr mentioned that children are especially susceptible to being harmed by the munitions, indicating that they are more inclined to pick them up. But they could equally pose a risk to existing structures, rather than people alone.
Experts have said that the process of getting rid of Gaza’s unexploded bombs and wider munitions is an “unprecedented” challenge, The Guardian reported on January 25th. Reportedly, at that point in time, over two-thirds of Gaza’s buildings had been damaged or completely destroyed by Israeli military attacks.
So the reconstruction and recovery of Gaza seemed to once be on the cards, due to international support and the plan’s aims to prevent displacement, but the cost of reconstruction and the restart of Israel’s military campaign in the enclave presents a less promising future. All the while, the leftover munitions could suggest that the territory’s remaining infrastructure is still at risk.
BBC, The Guardian, France 24 via AFP, United Nations Development Programme
