Gaza death toll could be undercounted by 40%, study says

Gaza death toll could be undercounted by 40%, study says

A new study published in The Lancet’s website on January 9th estimates the death toll in Gaza during the first nine months of the Israel-Hamas war was around 40% higher than the Palestinian territory’s health ministry had recorded, Al-Monitor via AFP reported.

The peer-reviewed research is based on ministry data, online surveys, and social media obituaries. The findings suggest the number of deaths from traumatic injuries by June 30th last year could be as high as 64,260, far exceeding the 37,877 reported by the Gaza health ministry – undercounted by 41%.

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The estimated death toll accounts for 2.9% of Gaza’s pre-war population, or approximately one in 35 residents, with 59% of those killed being women, children, and the elderly.

Researchers used the “capture–recapture” statistical method, a widely recognised technique for estimating death tolls in conflicts. The study examined overlaps between three distinct lists: hospital records, survey submissions, and verified obituaries on platforms such as Facebook and Instagram. Zeina Jamaluddine, the lead author of the study and an epidemiologist at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said: “We only kept in the analysis those who were confirmed dead by their relatives or confirmed dead by the morgues and the hospital.”

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Patrick Ball, a statistician from the US-based Human Rights Data Analysis Group, who was not involved in the research, described the study as having produced “a good estimate.” The study’s methodology was also praised by Kevin McConway, a professor of applied statistics at Britain’s Open University, although he acknowledged uncertainties which are inherent in using incomplete data.

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The study only accounts for deaths caused by traumatic injuries, excluding fatalities from healthcare shortages, malnutrition, or missing persons thought to be buried under rubble. The UN’s humanitarian agency estimates around 10,000 Gazans remain unaccounted for.

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Criticism is expected from both sides of the conflict. Jamaluddine expressed frustration with the fixation on debating death tolls, stating, “We already know that there is a lot of high mortality.”

Gaza’s health ministry, as of January 9th, reported 46,006 deaths over the entire 15 months of conflict. Israel has consistently questioned the ministry’s figures, while the United Nations maintains they are reliable.

Al-Monitor via AFP

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