IMF says Gaza, Lebanon, Sudan conflicts to leave “lasting scars”
The International Monetary fund said on October 31st that Gaza, Lebanon and Sudan will take decades to cover from their wars, according to the Arab News via AFP.
The IMF has also downgraded the growth forecast for the Middle East and Central Asia to 2.1% for 2024, a fall of 0.6% due to wars and lower oil production. “The damage caused by these conflicts will leave lasting scars at their epicenters for decades,” the organisation said in a statement.
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IMF Regional Economic Outlook compiled in September said that growth should rise to 4% next year, but this depends on conflicts.
“This year has been challenging with conflicts causing devastating human suffering and lasting economic damage,” IMF Middle East and Central Asia Department director Jihad Azour told reporters in Dubai. “The recent escalation in Lebanon has greatly increased the uncertainty in the whole MENA region.”
IMF forecasts for Lebanon have been suspended, but Azour said that “conservative estimates show a 9 to 10% contraction this year. “The impact (on Lebanon) will be severe and it will depend how long this conflict will last,” said the former Lebanese finance minister.
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Saudi-led oil cuts through OPEC+ aimed at increasing prices, “are contributing to sluggish near-term growth in many economies,” the IMF stated. For regional oil exporters, “medium-term growth is projected to moderate, as economic diversification reforms will take time to yield results,” it added.
Downside risks continue to dominate, the IMF added, including fluctuating commodity prices, conflicts and climate shocks.
The IMF had previous predicted that growth in the region would be 2.7% earlier in the year, as was reported by Reuters.
AFP, Reuters