Israel’s strike on Baalbek raises stakes with Hezbollah
Experts warn that Israel’s strike on Baalbek, Lebanon shows it’s raising the stakes in its Hezbollah brinksmanship, according to The National.
The February 26th strike hit the north-eastern city, famous for its ancient ruins, was its deepest attack into Lebanon since the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war.
Israeli’s Defence Forces (IDF) claimed that the strike was carried out in retaliation for the downing of a Hermes 450 drone over southern Lebanon, on February 26th, and that it killed two Hezbollah members.
READ: Hezbollah fires salvo of rockets at Israeli base
Hezbollah also claimed responsibility for downing another Hermes 450 in November 2023, with a surface-to-air missile.
The Iran-backed militant group has participated in regular exchanges of fire with the IDF since the outbreak of the Israel Gaza conflict on October 7th, in solidarity with Gaza’s Iran-backed Hamas.
The IDF have expanded their strikes further north in Lebanon in recent weeks, according to Reuters.
Israel is one of the largest drone operators in the Middle East and is a net exporter of the technology, having exported $4.6 bn worth of unmanned aerial vehicles worldwide in the last eight years.
Head of Dubai’s Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis, Riad Kahwaji, said Hezbollah’s actions present a significant threat to Israel, which prizes its air superiority.
Lebanese Brigadier General, Abdel Kader, claimed that Israel’s strikes were but a continuation of the slow escalation that has occurred over nearly five months the conflict.
He stated: “It’s not just skirmishes across the border. The environment from December to now indicates that Israel is trying to step up the heat on the northern border.”
The Brig. Gen. added that the strike is an attempt by Israel to increase pressure on Hezbollah and the Lebanese state, to react in such a way that could be used by Israel “as a pretext by Israel to launch a full war on Lebanon.” He also suggested that Israeli troop movement from Gaza to its border with Lebanon is an indication of its preparations for “the next stage of the war.”
READ: Israel strikes Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon
Senior Fellow at the Carnegie Middle East Centre, Mohanad Hage Ali, shared a similar assessment and said Israel’s strategy places Hezbollah in a difficult position.
He stated: “Hezbollah is trapped between its desire not to drag Lebanon into a full war, on one hand, and Israel’s painful strikes and intent on spreading insecurity within the organisation and its community.”
Close to neighbouring Syria, Baalbek is known to be a Hezbollah stronghold where the group receives support from Iran’s Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). Experts expect that its location was a primary reason for Israel’s decision to attack the city.
Like much of Lebanon, Baalbek was heavily damaged during the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war, which lasted 33 days. Since then, the country has slid deeper into economic crisis, described by the World Bank as one of the worst in the modern world.
Another full-scale war with Israel would be “catastrophic for Lebanon’s society and government,” said Abdel Kader, with the state unable to provide much support for its people.
The National / Reuters
