Would Israel really trade Shebaa Farms for border deal?

Shebaa farms Israel Hezbollah

Israel could make a number of key concessions to Hezbollah if the latter agreed to a new, super fence the Israelis are planning to make along the Lebanese Israel border, according to local reports cited by the London-based Qatari news outlet The New Arab.

Israel, Levantis understands, is increasingly concerned about the possibility of Hezbollah conducting a land invasion of Northern Israel, a plan which Hezbollah have been planning since 2006. In the summer of that year, for a little over 30 days, Israel suffered considerable losses when it carried out an invasion which saw its forces retreat with heavy losses.

Ynet reported on February 4th that while Israel has been demanding Hezbollah fighters to move behind Lebanon’s Litani River, it may also agree to withdraw some of its forces from the border region. In reality, there is little chance that Hezbollah would agree to moving back as the territory is considered land liberated after the 200 war and very much symbolic of the Shiite groups spoils of war.

However, Hezbollah could move back from the border a few kilometers.

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The Israeli site claimed that some of the 2,000 members of Hezbollah’s elite Radwan Force have withdrawn to about four and six kilometres from the Lebanese-Israeli frontier in recent weeks. This coincides with news that the IDF have hit over 3000 sites both in Lebanon and Syria since the recent conflict began.

France and the US are negotiating between the two sides to reduce tensions between Israel and Hezbollah as the US believes that it can comfortably handle a proxy war in the region with Iran’s allies but not Hezbollah, which is too powerful and has too large an arsenal all pointed at key Israeli military locations.

But minor border posts, which the Israelis control, would be considered interesting for Hezbollah if they were offered to it, in exchange for pulling back huge numbers of its forces from the border.

One of the most important territories claimed by Lebanon and occupied by Israel is the Shebaa Farms still held by Israel but considered almost sacred land by Hezbollah and often at the centre of exchanges of fire between the two sides.

“Israeli officials now estimate that the probability of successful negotiations is 30 percent” after previously being pessimistic that mediated talks with Hezbollah will fail and ultimately lead to war, Ynet added.

Since Israel withdrew from southern Lebanon after its 28-year-long occupation, there has been no fixed land border between the two neighbours, with UN troops – UNIFIL – occupying the South of Lebanon, but doing nothing to prevent conflicts breaking out.

Despite being enemy states, Lebanon and Israel signed a landmark maritime border deal in October 2022, after years of US-mediated talks.

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